SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 50.11%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 23.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.05%) and 1-2 (9.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.42%), while for a Cerro Largo win it was 1-0 (8.53%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Cerro Largo | Draw | Nacional |
23.28% ( 0.99) | 26.61% ( 0.03) | 50.11% ( -1.02) |
| Both teams to score 45.5% ( 0.96) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.88% ( 0.7) | 58.12% ( -0.7) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.21% ( 0.55) | 78.78% ( -0.55) |
| Cerro Largo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.33% ( 1.38) | 40.66% ( -1.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.75% ( 1.21) | 77.25% ( -1.22) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.68% ( -0.16) | 23.31% ( 0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.74% ( -0.23) | 57.26% ( 0.22) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cerro Largo | Draw | Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 8.53% ( 0.09) 2-1 @ 5.59% ( 0.24)2-0 @ 3.84% ( 0.18)3-1 @ 1.68% ( 0.13)3-2 @ 1.22% ( 0.09)3-0 @ 1.15% ( 0.1)Other @ 1.27% Total : 23.28% | 1-1 @ 12.42% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 9.48% ( -0.26)2-2 @ 4.07% ( 0.16)Other @ 0.64% Total : 26.61% | 0-1 @ 13.8% ( -0.44) 0-2 @ 10.05% ( -0.36)1-2 @ 9.04% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 4.88% ( -0.2)1-3 @ 4.39% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.98% ( 0.07)0-4 @ 1.78% ( -0.08)1-4 @ 1.6% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.59% Total : 50.1% |
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