SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dundalk win with a probability of 57%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Drogheda United had a probability of 17.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dundalk win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.19%) and 2-1 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.56%), while for a Drogheda United win it was 0-1 (7.39%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Dundalk would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Dundalk | Draw | Drogheda United |
57% ( -1.03) | 25.35% ( 0.49) | 17.65% ( 0.53) |
| Both teams to score 41.42% ( -0.33) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.56% ( -0.96) | 59.44% ( 0.96) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.19% ( -0.74) | 79.81% ( 0.74) |
| Dundalk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.08% ( -0.79) | 20.92% ( 0.79) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.35% ( -1.25) | 53.65% ( 1.25) |
| Drogheda United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 52.38% ( 0.1) | 47.62% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.05% ( 0.08) | 82.95% ( -0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Dundalk | Draw | Drogheda United |
| 1-0 @ 15.58% ( 0.18) 2-0 @ 12.19% ( -0.15)2-1 @ 9.05% ( -0.09)3-0 @ 6.36% ( -0.24)3-1 @ 4.72% ( -0.16)4-0 @ 2.49% ( -0.16)4-1 @ 1.84% ( -0.11)3-2 @ 1.75% ( -0.05)Other @ 3.03% Total : 57% | 1-1 @ 11.56% ( 0.17) 0-0 @ 9.96% ( 0.35)2-2 @ 3.36% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.47% Total : 25.34% | 0-1 @ 7.39% ( 0.29) 1-2 @ 4.29% ( 0.08)0-2 @ 2.74% ( 0.11)1-3 @ 1.06% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.16% Total : 17.65% |
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