SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 74.36%. A draw had a probability of 17.5% and a win for Bolivia had a probability of 8.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 2-0 with a probability of 15.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (14.79%) and 3-0 (11.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.98%), while for a Bolivia win it was 0-1 (3.76%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ecuador would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ecuador | Draw | Bolivia |
74.36% ( -0.56) | 17.54% ( 0.15) | 8.1% ( 0.41) |
| Both teams to score 36.72% ( 1.28) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.78% ( 0.68) | 50.22% ( -0.68) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.83% ( 0.6) | 72.17% ( -0.6) |
| Ecuador Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.06% ( 0.03) | 11.94% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 62.69% ( 0.08) | 37.31% ( -0.07) |
| Bolivia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 41.7% ( 1.44) | 58.3% ( -1.44) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 10.24% ( 0.76) | 89.75% ( -0.76) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ecuador | Draw | Bolivia |
| 2-0 @ 15.71% ( -0.4) 1-0 @ 14.79% ( -0.38)3-0 @ 11.13% ( -0.26)2-1 @ 8.48% ( 0.18)3-1 @ 6.01% ( 0.14)4-0 @ 5.92% ( -0.13)4-1 @ 3.19% ( 0.08)5-0 @ 2.52% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 1.62% ( 0.11)5-1 @ 1.36% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.61% Total : 74.34% | 1-1 @ 7.98% ( 0.16) 0-0 @ 6.96% ( -0.19)2-2 @ 2.29% ( 0.15)Other @ 0.31% Total : 17.54% | 0-1 @ 3.76% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 2.15% ( 0.14)0-2 @ 1.01% ( 0.06)Other @ 1.18% Total : 8.1% |
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