Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Eibar win with a probability of 51.05%. A draw had a probability of 27.9% and a win for Sporting Gijon had a probability of 21.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Eibar win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.03%) and 2-1 (8.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.41%), while for a Sporting Gijon win it was 0-1 (9.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood.
-0.13) 
0.12) 
