Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Eibar win with a probability of 42.71%. A win for Alcorcon had a probability of 29.63% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Eibar win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.52%) and 0-2 (8.16%). The likeliest Alcorcon win was 1-0 (9.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood.
0.44) 
-0.39) 
