SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estoril Praia win with a probability of 39.13%. A win for Chaves had a probability of 34.12% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estoril Praia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.39%) and 2-0 (6.91%). The likeliest Chaves win was 0-1 (9.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.71%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Estoril Praia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Chaves |
39.13% ( -2.85) | 26.75% ( 0.47) | 34.12% ( 2.38) |
| Both teams to score 51.51% ( -0.82) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.47% ( -1.35) | 53.53% ( 1.34) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.96% ( -1.15) | 75.04% ( 1.14) |
| Estoril Praia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.27% ( -2.13) | 26.72% ( 2.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.01% ( -2.89) | 61.99% ( 2.89) |
| Chaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.29% ( 0.89) | 29.7% ( -0.9) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.24% ( 1.08) | 65.76% ( -1.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Chaves |
| 1-0 @ 10.47% ( -0.08) 2-1 @ 8.39% ( -0.38)2-0 @ 6.91% ( -0.49)3-1 @ 3.69% ( -0.41)3-0 @ 3.04% ( -0.42)3-2 @ 2.24% ( -0.19)4-1 @ 1.22% ( -0.22)4-0 @ 1% ( -0.21)Other @ 2.16% Total : 39.12% | 1-1 @ 12.71% ( 0.21) 0-0 @ 7.94% ( 0.41)2-2 @ 5.09% ( -0.1)3-3 @ 0.91% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.74% | 0-1 @ 9.64% ( 0.72) 1-2 @ 7.72% ( 0.32)0-2 @ 5.85% ( 0.57)1-3 @ 3.12% ( 0.2)0-3 @ 2.37% ( 0.28)2-3 @ 2.06% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 0.95% ( 0.08)Other @ 2.42% Total : 34.12% |
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