Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fakel win with a probability of 39.3%. A win for Nizhny Novgorod had a probability of 30.44% and a draw had a probability of 30.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fakel win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.94%) and 2-1 (7.45%). The likeliest Nizhny Novgorod win was 0-1 (12.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.43%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.
0.01) 
-0.02) 
