SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 11 | Khimki | 7 | -4 | 7 |
| 12 | Nizhny Novgorod | 7 | -4 | 6 |
| 13 | Orenburg | 7 | -8 | 6 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 13 | Orenburg | 7 | -8 | 6 |
| 14 | Fakel | 7 | -7 | 4 |
| 15 | Torpedo Moskva | 7 | -14 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nizhny Novgorod win with a probability of 41.73%. A win for Fakel had a probability of 31.56% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nizhny Novgorod win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.67%) and 2-0 (7.53%). The likeliest Fakel win was 0-1 (9.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nizhny Novgorod would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nizhny Novgorod | Draw | Fakel |
41.73% ( 0.6) | 26.71% ( -0.23) | 31.56% ( -0.37) |
| Both teams to score 50.94% ( 0.58) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.07% ( 0.8) | 53.93% ( -0.81) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.62% ( 0.67) | 75.38% ( -0.67) |
| Nizhny Novgorod Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.48% ( 0.68) | 25.51% ( -0.69) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.64% ( 0.92) | 60.36% ( -0.93) |
| Fakel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.38% ( 0.15) | 31.61% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.98% ( 0.18) | 68.02% ( -0.18) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nizhny Novgorod | Draw | Fakel |
| 1-0 @ 11.01% ( -0.13) 2-1 @ 8.67% ( 0.1)2-0 @ 7.53% ( 0.06)3-1 @ 3.95% ( 0.12)3-0 @ 3.43% ( 0.09)3-2 @ 2.27% ( 0.08)4-1 @ 1.35% ( 0.07)4-0 @ 1.17% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.36% Total : 41.72% | 1-1 @ 12.68% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 8.07% ( -0.26)2-2 @ 4.99% ( 0.08)Other @ 0.96% Total : 26.7% | 0-1 @ 9.29% ( -0.26) 1-2 @ 7.31% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 5.35% ( -0.12)1-3 @ 2.8% ( 0)0-3 @ 2.05% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.92% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.85% Total : 31.56% |
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