SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Krylia Sovetov win with a probability of 53.5%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for Fakel had a probability of 20.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Krylia Sovetov win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.75%) and 2-1 (9.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.97%), while for a Fakel win it was 0-1 (7.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Krylia Sovetov would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Krylia Sovetov | Draw | Fakel |
53.5% ( -0.26) | 25.57% ( 0.05) | 20.92% ( 0.21) |
| Both teams to score 45.57% ( 0.15) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.41% ( 0.04) | 56.59% ( -0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.43% ( 0.04) | 77.56% ( -0.04) |
| Krylia Sovetov Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.8% ( -0.09) | 21.2% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.91% ( -0.14) | 54.08% ( 0.13) |
| Fakel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.83% ( 0.25) | 42.17% ( -0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.42% ( 0.22) | 78.58% ( -0.22) |
| Score Analysis |
| Krylia Sovetov | Draw | Fakel |
| 1-0 @ 13.86% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 10.75% ( -0.08)2-1 @ 9.29% ( -0)3-0 @ 5.56% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 4.8% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 2.16% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 2.07% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.86% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.14% Total : 53.49% | 1-1 @ 11.97% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 8.94% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 4.01% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.65% Total : 25.57% | 0-1 @ 7.72% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 5.17% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 3.33% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 1.49% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.15% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 0.96% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.1% Total : 20.92% |
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