Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 59.82%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 16.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.21%) and 2-1 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.02%), while for a Vasco da Gama win it was 0-1 (6.43%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fortaleza would win this match.
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