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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 56.69%. A win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 21.98% and a draw had a probability of 21.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.22%) and 0-1 (8.11%). The likeliest Fortuna Sittard win was 2-1 (5.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.66%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Fortuna Sittard | Draw | Ajax |
21.98% ( 1.11) | 21.33% ( 0.27) | 56.69% ( -1.38) |
| Both teams to score 60.45% ( 0.75) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.39% ( 0.22) | 37.61% ( -0.22) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.16% ( 0.24) | 59.84% ( -0.23) |
| Fortuna Sittard Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.62% ( 1.13) | 30.38% ( -1.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.43% ( 1.33) | 66.57% ( -1.32) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.83% ( -0.33) | 13.17% ( 0.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.13% ( -0.68) | 39.87% ( 0.69) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fortuna Sittard | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 5.76% ( 0.22) 1-0 @ 4.77% ( 0.1)2-0 @ 2.84% ( 0.14)3-2 @ 2.32% ( 0.13)3-1 @ 2.29% ( 0.15)3-0 @ 1.13% ( 0.09)Other @ 2.89% Total : 21.98% | 1-1 @ 9.66% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 5.84% ( 0.15)0-0 @ 4% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 1.57% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.26% Total : 21.33% | 1-2 @ 9.8% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 8.22% ( -0.3)0-1 @ 8.11% ( -0.19)1-3 @ 6.62% ( -0.12)0-3 @ 5.56% ( -0.28)2-3 @ 3.94% ( 0.05)1-4 @ 3.35% ( -0.1)0-4 @ 2.82% ( -0.18)2-4 @ 2% ( 0)1-5 @ 1.36% ( -0.06)0-5 @ 1.14% ( -0.09)Other @ 3.77% Total : 56.69% |
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