SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | France | 8 | 26 | 22 |
| 2 | Netherlands | 8 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Greece | 8 | 6 | 13 |
| 4 | Republic of Ireland | 8 | -1 | 6 |
| 5 | Gibraltar | 8 | -41 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a France win with a probability of 65.29%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Chile had a probability of 13.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a France win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.84%) and 2-1 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.93%), while for a Chile win it was 0-1 (5.16%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that France would win this match.
| Result | ||
| France | Draw | Chile |
65.29% ( -0.02) | 21.03% ( -0) | 13.67% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 44.82% ( 0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.87% ( 0.05) | 50.12% ( -0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.91% ( 0.05) | 72.09% ( -0.05) |
| France Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.41% ( 0.01) | 14.59% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.33% ( 0.02) | 42.67% ( -0.02) |
| Chile Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 52.48% ( 0.07) | 47.51% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.12% ( 0.05) | 82.87% ( -0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| France | Draw | Chile |
| 1-0 @ 13.34% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 12.84% ( -0.02)2-1 @ 9.56% ( 0)3-0 @ 8.24% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 6.13% ( 0)4-0 @ 3.97% ( -0)4-1 @ 2.95% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.28% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 1.53% 5-1 @ 1.14% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.1% ( 0)Other @ 2.22% Total : 65.29% | 1-1 @ 9.93% ( 0) 0-0 @ 6.93% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 3.56% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.62% Total : 21.03% | 0-1 @ 5.16% ( -0) 1-2 @ 3.69% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 1.92% ( 0)1-3 @ 0.92% ( 0)Other @ 1.98% Total : 13.67% |
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