SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 45.42%. A win for Freiburg had a probability of 31.91% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.6%) and 0-2 (6.01%). The likeliest Freiburg win was 2-1 (7.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Freiburg | Draw | RB Leipzig |
31.91% ( 0.13) | 22.67% ( -0.01) | 45.42% ( -0.12) |
| Both teams to score 65.03% ( 0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.38% ( 0.12) | 35.62% ( -0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.32% ( 0.13) | 57.67% ( -0.12) |
| Freiburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.61% ( 0.13) | 22.38% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.11% ( 0.19) | 55.89% ( -0.19) |
| RB Leipzig Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.79% ( 0) | 16.21% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.29% ( 0) | 45.71% ( 0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Freiburg | Draw | RB Leipzig |
| 2-1 @ 7.4% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 5.43% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 4.07% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 3.69% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 3.36% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 2.03% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.38% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.26% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.31% Total : 31.91% | 1-1 @ 9.88% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 6.73% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 3.63% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 2.04% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.39% Total : 22.67% | 1-2 @ 8.99% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 6.6% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 6.01% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 5.45% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 4.08% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 3.64% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 2.48% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.86% ( 0)0-4 @ 1.66% ( -0.01)3-4 @ 0.93% ( 0.01)1-5 @ 0.9% ( -0)Other @ 2.82% Total : 45.42% |
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