SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 60.01%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Freiburg had a probability of 19.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.72%) and 1-0 (8.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.3%), while for a Freiburg win it was 1-2 (5.25%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.
| Result | ||
| RB Leipzig | Draw | Freiburg |
60.01% ( 0.2) | 20.47% ( 0.02) | 19.52% ( -0.22) |
| Both teams to score 59.53% ( -0.46) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.99% ( -0.42) | 37.01% ( 0.42) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.8% ( -0.46) | 59.19% ( 0.45) |
| RB Leipzig Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.97% ( -0.07) | 12.02% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 62.5% ( -0.16) | 37.49% ( 0.15) |
| Freiburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.67% ( -0.47) | 32.33% ( 0.47) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.17% ( -0.53) | 68.83% ( 0.53) |
| Score Analysis |
| RB Leipzig | Draw | Freiburg |
| 2-1 @ 9.85% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 8.72% ( 0.13)1-0 @ 8.23% ( 0.14)3-1 @ 6.95% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 6.16% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 3.93% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 3.68% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 3.26% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 2.08% ( -0.03)5-1 @ 1.56% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 1.38% ( 0.01)Other @ 4.21% Total : 60.01% | 1-1 @ 9.3% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 5.56% ( -0.06)0-0 @ 3.89% ( 0.08)3-3 @ 1.48% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.24% Total : 20.47% | 1-2 @ 5.25% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 4.39% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 2.48% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.09% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 1.98% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.4% Total : 19.52% |
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