Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Frosinone win with a probability of 36.25%. A win for Bari had a probability of 35.64% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Frosinone win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.74%) and 2-0 (6.67%). The likeliest Bari win was 0-1 (11.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.19%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.
-0.27) 
0.12) 
