Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Frosinone win with a probability of 47.11%. A win for Modena had a probability of 26.5% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Frosinone win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.08%) and 2-0 (8.91%). The likeliest Modena win was 0-1 (8.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.
-0.55) 
0.04) 
