SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Honduras win with a probability of 43.34%. A win for Mexico had a probability of 30.63% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Honduras win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.93%) and 2-0 (7.64%). The likeliest Mexico win was 0-1 (8.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Honduras would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Honduras | Draw | Mexico |
43.34% ( 0.2) | 26.03% ( -0.05) | 30.63% ( -0.14) |
| Both teams to score 52.64% ( 0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.44% ( 0.16) | 51.55% ( -0.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.65% ( 0.14) | 73.35% ( -0.14) |
| Honduras Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.36% ( 0.17) | 23.64% ( -0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.26% ( 0.24) | 57.74% ( -0.24) |
| Mexico Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.94% ( -0.02) | 31.06% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.63% ( -0.02) | 67.37% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Honduras | Draw | Mexico |
| 1-0 @ 10.58% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 8.93% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 7.64% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 4.29% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 3.67% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 2.51% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.55% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.32% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 0.91% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.94% Total : 43.33% | 1-1 @ 12.38% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 7.34% ( -0.05)2-2 @ 5.22% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 0.98% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.03% | 0-1 @ 8.59% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 7.24% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 5.02% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 2.82% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.04% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.96% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.97% Total : 30.63% |
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