SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Iraq | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 2 | Japan | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Indonesia | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Vietnam | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Indonesia win with a probability of 42.91%. A win for Vietnam had a probability of 32.38% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Indonesia win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.77%) and 2-0 (6.82%). The likeliest Vietnam win was 1-2 (7.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.57%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Indonesia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Indonesia | Draw | Vietnam |
42.91% ( 0.48) | 24.71% ( 0.05) | 32.38% ( -0.52) |
| Both teams to score 57.81% ( -0.35) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.83% ( -0.38) | 45.17% ( 0.38) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.48% ( -0.36) | 67.51% ( 0.36) |
| Indonesia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.89% ( 0.06) | 21.11% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.05% ( 0.09) | 53.94% ( -0.09) |
| Vietnam Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.28% ( -0.5) | 26.72% ( 0.51) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.02% ( -0.67) | 61.98% ( 0.67) |
| Score Analysis |
| Indonesia | Draw | Vietnam |
| 2-1 @ 9.01% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 8.77% ( 0.16)2-0 @ 6.82% ( 0.13)3-1 @ 4.67% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 3.54% ( 0.08)3-2 @ 3.08% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 1.82% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.38% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.2% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.64% Total : 42.91% | 1-1 @ 11.57% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 5.94% ( -0.05)0-0 @ 5.64% ( 0.09)3-3 @ 1.36% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.7% | 1-2 @ 7.64% ( -0.08) 0-1 @ 7.44% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 4.91% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 3.36% ( -0.09)2-3 @ 2.62% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 2.16% ( -0.06)1-4 @ 1.11% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.13% Total : 32.38% |
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