After a miserable showing in midweek, Kazakhstan do not look like causing Slovenia many problems in the final third, with most of their main forwards short of playing time at club level.
The visitors are still hoping for a top-two finish, and they can stay in contention by edging out their hosts in Pavlodar.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Slovenia win with a probability of 43.49%. A draw had a probability of 28.3% and a win for Kazakhstan had a probability of 28.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Slovenia win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.62%) and 1-2 (8.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.08%), while for a Kazakhstan win it was 1-0 (10.23%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Slovenia in this match.
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