SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 62.85%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Cagliari had a probability of 15.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.25%) and 2-1 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.36%), while for a Cagliari win it was 0-1 (5.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lazio | Draw | Cagliari |
62.85% ( 0.27) | 21.9% ( -0.03) | 15.24% ( -0.23) |
| Both teams to score 46.03% ( -0.4) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.4% ( -0.27) | 50.6% ( 0.27) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.49% ( -0.23) | 72.51% ( 0.23) |
| Lazio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.47% ( -0) | 15.52% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.55% ( -0) | 44.44% ( 0) |
| Cagliari Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.49% ( -0.48) | 45.51% ( 0.48) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.66% ( -0.38) | 81.33% ( 0.38) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lazio | Draw | Cagliari |
| 1-0 @ 13.16% ( 0.14) 2-0 @ 12.25% ( 0.13)2-1 @ 9.65% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 7.61% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 5.99% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 3.54% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 2.79% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.36% ( -0.04)5-0 @ 1.32% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.1% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 1.04% ( -0)Other @ 2.03% Total : 62.85% | 1-1 @ 10.36% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 7.07% ( 0.08)2-2 @ 3.8% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.68% Total : 21.9% | 0-1 @ 5.56% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 4.08% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 2.19% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 1.07% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 1% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.34% Total : 15.24% |
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