SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 49.25%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Lugo had a probability of 25.24%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.36%) and 0-2 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.11%), while for a Lugo win it was 1-0 (7.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lugo | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
25.24% ( -0.01) | 25.5% ( -0.03) | 49.25% ( 0.05) |
| Both teams to score 50.56% ( 0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.5% ( 0.13) | 52.49% ( -0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.83% ( 0.11) | 74.16% ( -0.11) |
| Lugo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.26% ( 0.06) | 35.73% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.49% ( 0.06) | 72.5% ( -0.06) |
| Atletico Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.67% ( 0.07) | 21.33% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.71% ( 0.11) | 54.28% ( -0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lugo | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
| 1-0 @ 7.84% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 6.24% ( 0)2-0 @ 4.04% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 2.14% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.65% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 1.39% Other @ 1.95% Total : 25.25% | 1-1 @ 12.11% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 7.62% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 4.82% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.94% Total : 25.49% | 0-1 @ 11.77% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 9.36% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 9.1% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 4.82% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 4.69% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.48% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.86% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.81% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 0.96% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.4% Total : 49.25% |
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