SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 60.41%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Luton Town had a probability of 19.28%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.71%) and 0-1 (8.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.2%), while for a Luton Town win it was 2-1 (5.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Luton Town | Draw | Aston Villa |
19.28% ( -0.05) | 20.3% ( -0.18) | 60.41% ( 0.22) |
| Both teams to score 59.7% ( 0.56) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.4% ( 0.77) | 36.6% ( -0.77) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.25% ( 0.83) | 58.75% ( -0.84) |
| Luton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.68% ( 0.41) | 32.32% ( -0.41) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.17% ( 0.46) | 68.82% ( -0.46) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.21% ( 0.29) | 11.79% ( -0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 63.01% ( 0.63) | 36.99% ( -0.64) |
| Score Analysis |
| Luton Town | Draw | Aston Villa |
| 2-1 @ 5.2% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 4.3% ( -0.12)2-0 @ 2.43% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 2.09% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 1.96% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 0.92% ( -0)Other @ 2.39% Total : 19.28% | 1-1 @ 9.2% ( -0.14) 2-2 @ 5.56% ( 0.05)0-0 @ 3.81% ( -0.15)3-3 @ 1.49% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.25% Total : 20.3% | 1-2 @ 9.84% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 8.71% ( -0.12)0-1 @ 8.15% ( -0.21)1-3 @ 7.01% ( 0.06)0-3 @ 6.21% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3.96% ( 0.08)1-4 @ 3.75% ( 0.08)0-4 @ 3.32% ( 0.03)2-4 @ 2.12% ( 0.07)1-5 @ 1.6% ( 0.05)0-5 @ 1.42% ( 0.03)2-5 @ 0.91% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.44% Total : 60.41% |
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