SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 55.11%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Luton Town had a probability of 21.66%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.83%) and 2-0 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.01%), while for a Luton Town win it was 0-1 (6.17%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Aston Villa | Draw | Luton Town |
55.11% ( 1.74) | 23.23% ( 0.23) | 21.66% ( -1.97) |
| Both teams to score 53.46% ( -3.32) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.37% ( -3.19) | 46.63% ( 3.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.11% ( -3.06) | 68.9% ( 3.06) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.22% ( -0.53) | 16.78% ( 0.53) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.27% ( -0.95) | 46.74% ( 0.95) |
| Luton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.25% ( -3.56) | 35.76% ( 3.56) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.47% ( -3.85) | 72.53% ( 3.85) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aston Villa | Draw | Luton Town |
| 1-0 @ 10.71% ( 1.2) 2-1 @ 9.83% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 9.56% ( 0.92)3-1 @ 5.85% ( -0.08)3-0 @ 5.69% ( 0.46)3-2 @ 3.01% ( -0.35)4-1 @ 2.61% ( -0.08)4-0 @ 2.54% ( 0.16)4-2 @ 1.34% ( -0.18)5-1 @ 0.93% ( -0.05)5-0 @ 0.91% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.15% Total : 55.11% | 1-1 @ 11.01% ( 0.24) 0-0 @ 6% ( 0.77)2-2 @ 5.06% ( -0.49)3-3 @ 1.03% ( -0.24)Other @ 0.13% Total : 23.22% | 0-1 @ 6.17% ( 0.24) 1-2 @ 5.66% ( -0.44)0-2 @ 3.17% ( -0.19)1-3 @ 1.94% ( -0.37)2-3 @ 1.73% ( -0.36)0-3 @ 1.09% ( -0.18)Other @ 1.89% Total : 21.66% |
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