Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 52.44%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 25.85% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.05%) and 2-0 (7.03%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (6.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.51%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood.

Result
Macarthur	Draw	Wellington Phoenix
52.44% ( 0.49)	21.7% ( 0.05)	25.85% ( -0.54)

Both teams to score 63.95% (

-0.74)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.89% (

-0.73)

35.11% (

0.73)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

42.88% (

-0.82)

57.11% (

0.82)

Macarthur Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.37% (

-0.1)

13.63% (

0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

59.21% (

-0.2)

40.79% (

0.2)

Wellington Phoenix Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.04% (

-0.77)

25.96% (

0.77)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.03% (

-1.05)

60.97% (

1.04)

Score Analysis

Macarthur 52.44%

Wellington Phoenix 25.85%

Draw 21.7%

Macarthur	Draw	Wellington Phoenix
2-1 @ 9.48% ( 0.08) 1-0 @ 7.05% ( 0.23) 2-0 @ 7.03% ( 0.21) 3-1 @ 6.3% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 4.67% ( 0.12) 3-2 @ 4.25% ( -0.08) 4-1 @ 3.14% ( 0) 4-0 @ 2.33% ( 0.05) 4-2 @ 2.12% ( -0.05) 5-1 @ 1.25% ( -0) 4-3 @ 0.95% ( -0.04) 5-0 @ 0.93% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.98% Total : 52.44%	1-1 @ 9.51% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 6.39% ( -0.09) 0-0 @ 3.54% ( 0.13) 3-3 @ 1.91% ( -0.08) Other @ 0.36% Total : 21.7%	1-2 @ 6.41% ( -0.07) 0-1 @ 4.77% ( 0.07) 0-2 @ 3.22% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 2.88% ( -0.09) 2-3 @ 2.87% ( -0.11) 0-3 @ 1.45% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.05) 2-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.31% Total : 25.85%