SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 37.94%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 37.76% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.48%) and 2-0 (5.62%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (8.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Macarthur in this match.
| Result | ||
| Macarthur | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
37.94% ( -0.41) | 24.31% ( -0.09) | 37.76% ( 0.51) |
| Both teams to score 60.34% ( 0.36) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.66% ( 0.46) | 42.34% ( -0.45) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.26% ( 0.46) | 64.75% ( -0.45) |
| Macarthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.72% ( -0) | 22.28% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.27% ( -0.01) | 55.73% ( 0.01) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.63% ( 0.47) | 22.37% ( -0.46) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.13% ( 0.69) | 55.87% ( -0.69) |
| Score Analysis |
| Macarthur | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
| 2-1 @ 8.41% ( -0.06) 1-0 @ 7.48% ( -0.15)2-0 @ 5.62% ( -0.12)3-1 @ 4.21% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 3.15% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 2.81% ( -0.06)4-1 @ 1.58% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.18% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.06% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.43% Total : 37.94% | 1-1 @ 11.2% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 6.3% ( 0.04)0-0 @ 4.98% ( -0.1)3-3 @ 1.57% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.24% Total : 24.3% | 1-2 @ 8.39% ( 0.06) 0-1 @ 7.46% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 5.59% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 4.19% ( 0.09)2-3 @ 3.14% ( 0.06)0-3 @ 2.79% ( 0.06)1-4 @ 1.57% ( 0.05)2-4 @ 1.18% ( 0.04)0-4 @ 1.04% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.41% Total : 37.76% |
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