Mallorca will have been boosted by their penalty-shootout success over Real Sociedad in the Copa del Rey, but Girona need to keep winning to stay in the title picture, and we believe that the Catalan side, who have been impressive on their travels this season, will edge a close match this weekend.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Girona win with a probability of 40.65%. A win for Mallorca had a probability of 32.55% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Girona win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.55%) and 0-2 (7.29%). The likeliest Mallorca win was 1-0 (9.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood.
-1.21) 
0.31) 
