SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 65.96%. A draw had a probability of 18.7% and a win for Watford had a probability of 15.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.74%) and 1-0 (8.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.6%), while for a Watford win it was 1-2 (4.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Manchester City in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Manchester City.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | Watford |
65.96% ( -4.63) | 18.72% ( 2.06) | 15.32% ( 2.57) |
| Both teams to score 56.89% ( -0.58) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.68% ( -4.08) | 36.32% ( 4.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.55% ( -4.6) | 58.45% ( 4.61) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.74% ( -2.13) | 10.27% ( 2.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 66.37% ( -5.1) | 33.64% ( 5.1) |
| Watford Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.4% ( 0.84) | 36.61% ( -0.84) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.61% ( 0.84) | 73.39% ( -0.83) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester City | Draw | Watford |
| 2-1 @ 9.79% ( 0.37) 2-0 @ 9.74% ( 0.15)1-0 @ 8.55% ( 0.92)3-1 @ 7.42% ( -0.45)3-0 @ 7.39% ( -0.63)4-1 @ 4.23% ( -0.72)4-0 @ 4.2% ( -0.83)3-2 @ 3.73% ( -0.14)4-2 @ 2.12% ( -0.31)5-1 @ 1.92% ( -0.56)5-0 @ 1.91% ( -0.61)5-2 @ 0.97% ( -0.25)Other @ 3.99% Total : 65.96% | 1-1 @ 8.6% ( 1.09) 2-2 @ 4.92% ( 0.29)0-0 @ 3.76% ( 0.71)3-3 @ 1.25% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.2% Total : 18.72% | 1-2 @ 4.32% ( 0.63) 0-1 @ 3.78% ( 0.79)0-2 @ 1.9% ( 0.43)2-3 @ 1.65% ( 0.13)1-3 @ 1.45% ( 0.24)Other @ 2.23% Total : 15.32% |
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