Watford are certainly capable of making it an uncomfortable 90 minutes for Man City, with the Hornets boasting a lot of talent in the final third of the field. Man City cannot afford to drop points, though, and we are fully expecting the Citizens to secure all three points in relatively routine fashion.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 87.21%. A draw had a probability of 8.8% and a win for Watford had a probability of 3.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 3-0 with a probability of 11.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.85%) and 4-0 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.14%), while for a Watford win it was 1-2 (1.29%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
