There is going to be very little to split these two teams on Friday night, as has been the case throughout their previous three meetings this year, and it could be a cagey affair due to how much is on the line.
However, with the home crowd backing them and their undefeated record in this stadium, Melbourne City could just edge this.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 53.52%. A win for Sydney FC had a probability of 24.43% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8%) and 2-0 (7.76%). The likeliest Sydney FC win was 1-2 (6.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.99%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
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