SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 68.99%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 13.77%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.36%) and 3-1 (7.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.74%), while for a Wellington Phoenix win it was 1-2 (3.93%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne City | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
68.99% ( 0.84) | 17.24% ( -0.19) | 13.77% ( -0.65) |
| Both teams to score 58.33% ( -1.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.44% ( -0.62) | 32.56% ( 0.62) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.78% ( -0.72) | 54.22% ( 0.72) |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.44% ( 0.03) | 8.56% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 70.41% ( 0.06) | 29.59% ( -0.06) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.79% ( -1.28) | 36.21% ( 1.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27% ( -1.33) | 73% ( 1.33) |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne City | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
| 2-1 @ 9.51% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 9.36% ( 0.33)3-1 @ 7.8% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 7.67% ( 0.28)1-0 @ 7.62% ( 0.26)4-1 @ 4.79% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 4.72% ( 0.18)3-2 @ 3.96% ( -0.13)4-2 @ 2.43% ( -0.08)5-1 @ 2.36% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 2.32% ( 0.09)5-2 @ 1.2% ( -0.04)6-1 @ 0.97% ( 0.01)6-0 @ 0.95% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.35% Total : 68.99% | 1-1 @ 7.74% ( -0) 2-2 @ 4.83% ( -0.17)0-0 @ 3.1% ( 0.1)3-3 @ 1.34% ( -0.1)Other @ 0.23% Total : 17.24% | 1-2 @ 3.93% ( -0.14) 0-1 @ 3.15% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.64% ( -0.12)0-2 @ 1.6% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 1.33% ( -0.1)Other @ 2.13% Total : 13.77% |
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