SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 63.34%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 16.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.94%) and 2-1 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.52%), while for a Melbourne Victory win it was 0-1 (4.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Melbourne City in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Melbourne City.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne City | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
63.34% ( 2.01) | 20.24% ( -0.51) | 16.42% ( -1.49) |
| Both teams to score 53.99% ( -1.44) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.66% ( -0.36) | 41.34% ( 0.37) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.27% ( -0.37) | 63.73% ( 0.37) |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.58% ( 0.47) | 12.42% ( -0.46) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.67% ( 0.96) | 38.33% ( -0.95) |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.65% ( -1.97) | 38.35% ( 1.98) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.89% ( -1.94) | 75.11% ( 1.95) |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne City | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
| 2-0 @ 10.36% ( 0.52) 1-0 @ 9.94% ( 0.33)2-1 @ 9.93% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 7.21% ( 0.48)3-1 @ 6.91% ( 0.11)4-0 @ 3.76% ( 0.31)4-1 @ 3.6% ( 0.12)3-2 @ 3.31% ( -0.13)4-2 @ 1.73% ( -0.04)5-0 @ 1.57% ( 0.16)5-1 @ 1.5% ( 0.07)Other @ 3.54% Total : 63.34% | 1-1 @ 9.52% ( -0.19) 0-0 @ 4.76% ( 0.08)2-2 @ 4.76% ( -0.27)3-3 @ 1.06% ( -0.1)Other @ 0.14% Total : 20.25% | 0-1 @ 4.57% ( -0.17) 1-2 @ 4.56% ( -0.35)0-2 @ 2.19% ( -0.21)2-3 @ 1.52% ( -0.18)1-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.2)Other @ 2.12% Total : 16.42% |
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