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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 44.27%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 33.07% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.39%) and 2-0 (5.77%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 1-2 (7.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Adelaide United |
44.27% ( 1.82) | 22.67% ( -0.79) | 33.07% ( -1.02) |
| Both teams to score 65.55% ( 2.62) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.85% ( 3.58) | 35.15% ( -3.58) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.85% ( 3.88) | 57.15% ( -3.88) |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.53% ( 2.17) | 16.47% ( -2.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.83% ( 3.78) | 46.17% ( -3.78) |
| Adelaide United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.48% ( 1.13) | 21.52% ( -1.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.41% ( 1.7) | 54.58% ( -1.7) |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Adelaide United |
| 2-1 @ 8.86% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 6.39% ( -0.7)2-0 @ 5.77% ( -0.19)3-1 @ 5.33% ( 0.37)3-2 @ 4.09% ( 0.41)3-0 @ 3.47% ( 0.13)4-1 @ 2.4% ( 0.32)4-2 @ 1.85% ( 0.3)4-0 @ 1.56% ( 0.16)4-3 @ 0.95% ( 0.18)Other @ 3.61% Total : 44.27% | 1-1 @ 9.82% ( -0.71) 2-2 @ 6.8% ( 0.23)0-0 @ 3.54% ( -0.68)3-3 @ 2.09% ( 0.27)Other @ 0.41% Total : 22.67% | 1-2 @ 7.54% ( -0.28) 0-1 @ 5.44% ( -0.83)0-2 @ 4.18% ( -0.47)1-3 @ 3.86% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3.48% ( 0.23)0-3 @ 2.14% ( -0.16)1-4 @ 1.48% ( 0.05)2-4 @ 1.34% ( 0.13)Other @ 3.6% Total : 33.07% |
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