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Australian A-League | Gameweek 26
Apr 29, 2023 at 10.45am UK
AAMI Park
BR

Victory
0 - 1
Brisbane Roar


Chapman (57'), Marchan (83')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Courtney-Perkins (54')
Freke (90+2')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Victory 2-1 Macarthur
Sunday, April 23 at 6am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Brisbane Roar 0-2 Sydney FC
Monday, April 24 at 10am in Australian A-League

We said: Melbourne Victory 1-1 Brisbane Roar

Neither team will want to finish the season bottom of the league and that is likely going to create a cagey atmosphere here that could lead to them sharing the points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 46.18%. A win for Brisbane Roar had a probability of 29.58% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.94%) and 2-0 (7.34%). The likeliest Brisbane Roar win was 1-2 (7.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.33%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.

Result
Melbourne VictoryDrawBrisbane Roar
46.18% (-0.456 -0.46) 24.24% (-0.038 -0.04) 29.58% (0.494 0.49)
Both teams to score 57.98% (0.448 0.45)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.67% (0.449 0.45)44.33% (-0.449 -0.45)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.3% (0.435 0.44)66.7% (-0.435 -0.44)
Melbourne Victory Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.66% (-0.012 -0.01)19.34% (0.012 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.89% (-0.018999999999998 -0.02)51.11% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
Brisbane Roar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.88% (0.568 0.57)28.12% (-0.567 -0.57)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.2% (0.714 0.71)63.8% (-0.714 -0.71)
Score Analysis
    Melbourne Victory 46.18%
    Brisbane Roar 29.58%
    Draw 24.24%
Melbourne VictoryDrawBrisbane Roar
2-1 @ 9.31% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)
1-0 @ 8.94% (-0.178 -0.18)
2-0 @ 7.34% (-0.15 -0.15)
3-1 @ 5.1% (-0.023 -0.02)
3-0 @ 4.02% (-0.083 -0.08)
3-2 @ 3.24% (0.036 0.04)
4-1 @ 2.1% (-0.011 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.65% (-0.034 -0.03)
4-2 @ 1.33% (0.014 0.01)
Other @ 3.16%
Total : 46.18%
1-1 @ 11.33% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
2-2 @ 5.91% (0.068 0.07)
0-0 @ 5.44% (-0.107 -0.11)
3-3 @ 1.37% (0.037 0.04)
Other @ 0.19%
Total : 24.24%
1-2 @ 7.19% (0.086 0.09)
0-1 @ 6.9% (-0.024 -0.02)
0-2 @ 4.38% (0.054 0.05)
1-3 @ 3.04% (0.083 0.08)
2-3 @ 2.5% (0.068 0.07)
0-3 @ 1.85% (0.051 0.05)
1-4 @ 0.96% (0.041 0.04)
Other @ 2.76%
Total : 29.58%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Victory 2-1 Macarthur
Sunday, April 23 at 6am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Western Sydney 2-1 Victory
Saturday, April 15 at 10.45am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Victory 0-0 Perth Glory
Sunday, April 9 at 6am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Melbourne City 2-1 Victory
Wednesday, April 5 at 10am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Wellington 1-2 Victory
Saturday, April 1 at 3am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Victory 2-0 Central Coast
Sunday, March 19 at 6am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Brisbane Roar 0-2 Sydney FC
Monday, April 24 at 10am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Wellington 2-2 Brisbane Roar
Sunday, April 16 at 4am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Brisbane Roar 3-0 Newcastle Jets
Saturday, April 8 at 8am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Central Coast 4-1 Brisbane Roar
Saturday, April 1 at 7am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Brisbane Roar 1-0 Western Utd
Saturday, March 18 at 6am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Melbourne City 2-1 Brisbane Roar
Sunday, March 12 at 4am in Australian A-League


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