Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 49.42%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 26.6% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.53%) and 2-0 (8.09%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 1-2 (6.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.26%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne Victory would win this match.

Result
Melbourne Victory	Draw	Newcastle Jets
49.42% ( 0.78)	23.97% ( -0.15)	26.6% ( -0.63)

Both teams to score 56.64% (

-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.93% (

0.22)

45.07% (

-0.22)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.58% (

0.21)

67.41% (

-0.21)

Melbourne Victory Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.68% (

0.39)

18.32% (

-0.39)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.59% (

0.66)

49.41% (

-0.66)

Newcastle Jets Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.34% (

-0.36)

30.65% (

0.36)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.1% (

-0.43)

66.9% (

0.42)

Score Analysis

Melbourne Victory 49.42%

Newcastle Jets 26.6%

Draw 23.96%

Melbourne Victory	Draw	Newcastle Jets
2-1 @ 9.56% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 9.53% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 8.09% ( 0.12) 3-1 @ 5.41% ( 0.1) 3-0 @ 4.58% ( 0.13) 3-2 @ 3.2% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 2.3% ( 0.07) 4-0 @ 1.94% ( 0.08) 4-2 @ 1.36% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.46% Total : 49.42%	1-1 @ 11.26% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 5.65% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 5.62% ( -0.05) 3-3 @ 1.26% ( -0) Other @ 0.17% Total : 23.96%	1-2 @ 6.66% ( -0.11) 0-1 @ 6.64% ( -0.13) 0-2 @ 3.93% ( -0.12) 1-3 @ 2.63% ( -0.07) 2-3 @ 2.23% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 1.55% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.98% Total : 26.6%