SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Venezuela | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Ecuador | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Mexico | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Jamaica | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 45.76%. A win for Honduras had a probability of 27.61% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.97%) and 2-0 (8.61%). The likeliest Honduras win was 0-1 (8.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mexico would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Mexico | Draw | Honduras |
45.76% ( -0.08) | 26.62% ( -0.02) | 27.61% ( 0.09) |
| Both teams to score 49.13% ( 0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.72% ( 0.11) | 55.27% ( -0.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.5% ( 0.09) | 76.5% ( -0.1) |
| Mexico Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.9% ( 0.01) | 24.1% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.61% ( 0.02) | 58.39% ( -0.02) |
| Honduras Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.73% ( 0.13) | 35.27% ( -0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.97% ( 0.14) | 72.02% ( -0.14) |
| Score Analysis |
| Mexico | Draw | Honduras |
| 1-0 @ 12.09% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 8.97% ( 0)2-0 @ 8.61% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 4.25% ( 0)3-0 @ 4.08% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.22% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.51% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.45% ( -0)Other @ 2.58% Total : 45.76% | 1-1 @ 12.6% 0-0 @ 8.5% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 4.67% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.85% Total : 26.62% | 0-1 @ 8.86% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 6.57% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 4.62% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.28% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.62% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.6% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.06% Total : 27.61% |
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