SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 45.99%. A win for Stoke City had a probability of 28.91% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.26%) and 2-0 (7.84%). The likeliest Stoke City win was 0-1 (7.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.89%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Middlesbrough would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Middlesbrough | Draw | Stoke City |
45.99% ( 0.59) | 25.09% ( -0.16) | 28.91% ( -0.43) |
| Both teams to score 54.7% ( 0.24) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.57% ( 0.44) | 48.43% ( -0.44) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.43% ( 0.4) | 70.56% ( -0.4) |
| Middlesbrough Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.91% ( 0.44) | 21.08% ( -0.44) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.1% ( 0.69) | 53.9% ( -0.69) |
| Stoke City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.32% ( -0.09) | 30.68% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.07% ( -0.1) | 66.93% ( 0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Middlesbrough | Draw | Stoke City |
| 1-0 @ 10.06% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 9.26% ( 0.06)2-0 @ 7.84% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 4.81% ( 0.09)3-0 @ 4.07% ( 0.09)3-2 @ 2.84% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 1.87% ( 0.06)4-0 @ 1.58% ( 0.06)4-2 @ 1.11% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.56% Total : 45.99% | 1-1 @ 11.89% ( -0.09) 0-0 @ 6.47% ( -0.12)2-2 @ 5.47% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.12% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.09% | 0-1 @ 7.64% ( -0.16) 1-2 @ 7.03% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 4.52% ( -0.1)1-3 @ 2.77% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.16% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.78% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.02% Total : 28.91% |
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