SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 51.19%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 22.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.09%) and 1-2 (9.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.21%), while for a Montevideo Wanderers win it was 1-0 (8.09%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Montevideo Wanderers | Draw | Nacional |
22.82% ( -0.27) | 25.99% ( -0) | 51.19% ( 0.28) |
| Both teams to score 46.7% ( -0.29) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.7% ( -0.22) | 56.3% ( 0.22) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.66% ( -0.18) | 77.33% ( 0.18) |
| Montevideo Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.92% ( -0.39) | 40.08% ( 0.39) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.28% ( -0.36) | 76.72% ( 0.36) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.93% ( 0.03) | 22.06% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.59% ( 0.05) | 55.41% ( -0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Montevideo Wanderers | Draw | Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 8.09% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 5.59% ( -0.07)2-0 @ 3.7% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 1.7% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 1.29% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 1.13% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.33% Total : 22.82% | 1-1 @ 12.21% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 8.84% ( 0.07)2-2 @ 4.22% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.71% Total : 25.98% | 0-1 @ 13.36% ( 0.13) 0-2 @ 10.09% ( 0.1)1-2 @ 9.23% ( -0)0-3 @ 5.09% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 4.65% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.13% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 1.92% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 1.76% ( 0)Other @ 2.95% Total : 51.18% |
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