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Copa Libertadores | Round of 16 | 1st Leg
Aug 15, 2024 at 11pm UK
Estadio Gran Parque Central
SP

Nacional
0 - 0
Sao Paulo


Polenta (13'), Pereyra (86')
FT

Luciano (25'), Arboleda (36'), Gustavo (49'), Franco (58')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Nacional 1-1 Penarol (0-0 pen.)
Sunday, August 4 at 7pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

We said: Nacional 1-1 Sao Paulo

Nacional have netted in seven straight matches heading into their Libertadores match with Sao Paulo, pointing to them halting the Brazilian side's run of clean sheets. However, the spoils could be shared between the in-form sides that have given little away heading into this week's first leg. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 44.38%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 28.5% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.77%) and 0-2 (8.42%). The likeliest Nacional win was 1-0 (9.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.79%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
NacionalDrawSao Paulo
28.5% (0.252 0.25) 27.12% (0.315 0.32) 44.38% (-0.569 -0.57)
Both teams to score 48.25% (-0.763 -0.76)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.32% (-1.052 -1.05)56.68% (1.051 1.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.36% (-0.852 -0.85)77.64% (0.851 0.85)
Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.68% (-0.366 -0.37)35.32% (0.364 0.36)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.93% (-0.38 -0.38)72.07% (0.37899999999999 0.38)
Sao Paulo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.6% (-0.754 -0.75)25.4% (0.753 0.75)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.79% (-1.044 -1.04)60.21% (1.042 1.04)
Score Analysis
    Nacional 28.5%
    Sao Paulo 44.38%
    Draw 27.11%
NacionalDrawSao Paulo
1-0 @ 9.34% (0.281 0.28)
2-1 @ 6.66% (-0.0070000000000006 -0.01)
2-0 @ 4.86% (0.099 0.1)
3-1 @ 2.31% (-0.026 -0.03)
3-0 @ 1.69% (0.018 0.02)
3-2 @ 1.58% (-0.053 -0.05)
Other @ 2.07%
Total : 28.5%
1-1 @ 12.79% (0.11 0.11)
0-0 @ 8.97% (0.355 0.36)
2-2 @ 4.56% (-0.105 -0.11)
Other @ 0.79%
Total : 27.11%
0-1 @ 12.29% (0.23 0.23)
1-2 @ 8.77% (-0.114 -0.11)
0-2 @ 8.42% (-0.025 -0.03)
1-3 @ 4.01% (-0.141 -0.14)
0-3 @ 3.85% (-0.096 -0.1)
2-3 @ 2.08% (-0.095 -0.09)
1-4 @ 1.37% (-0.08 -0.08)
0-4 @ 1.32% (-0.063 -0.06)
Other @ 2.27%
Total : 44.38%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Nacional 1-1 Penarol (0-0 pen.)
Sunday, August 4 at 7pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: Nacional 1-0 Boston River
Sunday, July 28 at 7pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: Nacional 4-0 Miramar Misiones
Saturday, July 20 at 7.30pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: Danubio 0-6 Nacional
Saturday, July 13 at 7pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: Nacional 1-1 Rampla
Sunday, July 7 at 7.30pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: Cerro Largo 0-4 Nacional
Sunday, June 23 at 7pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: Sao Paulo 1-0 Atletico GO
Sunday, August 11 at 8pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Goias 0-0 Sao Paulo
Friday, August 9 at 12am in Copa do Brasil
Last Game: Sao Paulo 1-0 Flamengo
Sunday, August 4 at 1.30am in Brasileiro
Last Game: Sao Paulo 2-0 Goias
Wednesday, July 31 at 12am in Copa do Brasil
Last Game: Fortaleza 1-0 Sao Paulo
Sunday, July 28 at 1.30am in Brasileiro
Last Game: Sao Paulo 2-2 Botafogo
Wednesday, July 24 at 11.30pm in Brasileiro


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