SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 63.34%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for River Plate had a probability of 15.51%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.62%) and 1-2 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.06%), while for a River Plate win it was 1-0 (5.15%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| River Plate | Draw | Nacional |
15.51% ( -0.28) | 21.15% ( 0.01) | 63.34% ( 0.27) |
| Both teams to score 48.92% ( -0.68) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.96% ( -0.57) | 47.04% ( 0.57) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.72% ( -0.53) | 69.28% ( 0.53) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.02% ( -0.72) | 42.98% ( 0.72) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.72% ( -0.62) | 79.28% ( 0.62) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.8% ( -0.1) | 14.2% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.08% ( -0.19) | 41.92% ( 0.19) |
| Score Analysis |
| River Plate | Draw | Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 5.15% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 4.25% ( -0.08)2-0 @ 2.18% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 1.2% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 1.17% ( -0.05)Other @ 1.57% Total : 15.51% | 1-1 @ 10.06% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.1% ( 0.14)2-2 @ 4.15% ( -0.1)Other @ 0.84% Total : 21.15% | 0-1 @ 11.91% ( 0.24) 0-2 @ 11.62% ( 0.19)1-2 @ 9.82% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 7.57% ( 0.1)1-3 @ 6.39% ( -0.04)0-4 @ 3.69% ( 0.04)1-4 @ 3.12% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.7% ( -0.07)0-5 @ 1.44% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.32% ( -0.04)1-5 @ 1.22% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.55% Total : 63.33% |
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