Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 62.56%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Nacional had a probability of 15.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.62%) and 2-1 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.24%), while for a Nacional win it was 0-1 (5.35%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.
Result | ||
Sao Paulo | Draw | Nacional |
62.56% (![]() | 21.54% (![]() | 15.9% (![]() |
Both teams to score 48.56% (![]() |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
52.03% (![]() | 47.97% (![]() |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.86% (![]() | 70.15% (![]() |
Sao Paulo Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.25% (![]() | 14.75% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
57.02% (![]() | 42.98% (![]() |
Nacional Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
56.97% (![]() | 43.04% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
20.68% (![]() | 79.32% (![]() |
Score Analysis |
Sao Paulo | Draw | Nacional |
1-0 @ 12.14% (![]() 2-0 @ 11.62% ( ![]() 2-1 @ 9.8% ( ![]() 3-0 @ 7.42% ( ![]() 3-1 @ 6.25% ( ![]() 4-0 @ 3.55% ( ![]() 4-1 @ 2.99% ( ![]() 3-2 @ 2.64% ( ![]() 5-0 @ 1.36% ( ![]() 4-2 @ 1.26% ( ![]() 5-1 @ 1.15% ( ![]() Other @ 2.37% Total : 62.55% | 1-1 @ 10.24% (![]() 0-0 @ 6.35% ( ![]() 2-2 @ 4.13% ( ![]() Other @ 0.82% Total : 21.54% | 0-1 @ 5.35% (![]() 1-2 @ 4.32% ( ![]() 0-2 @ 2.26% ( ![]() 1-3 @ 1.21% ( ![]() 2-3 @ 1.16% ( ![]() Other @ 1.6% Total : 15.9% |
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