SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 62.56%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Nacional had a probability of 15.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.62%) and 2-1 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.24%), while for a Nacional win it was 0-1 (5.35%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sao Paulo | Draw | Nacional |
62.56% ( -0.5) | 21.54% ( 0.29) | 15.9% ( 0.22) |
| Both teams to score 48.56% ( -0.41) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.03% ( -0.8) | 47.97% ( 0.81) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.86% ( -0.74) | 70.15% ( 0.75) |
| Sao Paulo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.25% ( -0.42) | 14.75% ( 0.42) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.02% ( -0.81) | 42.98% ( 0.82) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.97% ( -0.19) | 43.04% ( 0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.68% ( -0.16) | 79.32% ( 0.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sao Paulo | Draw | Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 12.14% ( 0.22) 2-0 @ 11.62% ( 0.04)2-1 @ 9.8% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 7.42% ( -0.09)3-1 @ 6.25% ( -0.11)4-0 @ 3.55% ( -0.1)4-1 @ 2.99% ( -0.1)3-2 @ 2.64% ( -0.06)5-0 @ 1.36% ( -0.06)4-2 @ 1.26% ( -0.05)5-1 @ 1.15% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.37% Total : 62.55% | 1-1 @ 10.24% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 6.35% ( 0.21)2-2 @ 4.13% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.82% Total : 21.54% | 0-1 @ 5.35% ( 0.15) 1-2 @ 4.32% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 2.26% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 1.21% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.16% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.6% Total : 15.9% |
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