SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 46.63%. A draw had a probability of 27.1% and a win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 26.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.09%) and 1-2 (8.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.7%), while for a Montevideo Wanderers win it was 1-0 (9.1%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Montevideo Wanderers | Draw | Penarol |
26.29% ( -0.13) | 27.08% ( -0.03) | 46.63% ( 0.16) |
| Both teams to score 46.91% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.33% ( 0.04) | 57.67% ( -0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.57% ( 0.04) | 78.43% ( -0.04) |
| Montevideo Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.33% ( -0.08) | 37.67% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.55% ( -0.08) | 74.45% ( 0.08) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.26% ( 0.1) | 24.74% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.71% ( 0.14) | 59.29% ( -0.14) |
| Score Analysis |
| Montevideo Wanderers | Draw | Penarol |
| 1-0 @ 9.1% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 6.2% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 4.44% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 2.02% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 1.45% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.41% ( -0)Other @ 1.68% Total : 26.29% | 1-1 @ 12.7% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 9.32% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 4.33% ( -0)Other @ 0.72% Total : 27.07% | 0-1 @ 13.01% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 9.09% ( 0.04)1-2 @ 8.88% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 4.23% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 4.13% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 2.02% ( 0)0-4 @ 1.48% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.44% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.35% Total : 46.63% |
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