SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 41.12%. A win for Penarol had a probability of 30.26% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.12%) and 2-0 (8.04%). The likeliest Penarol win was 0-1 (10.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Penarol |
41.12% ( -0.48) | 28.62% ( 0.15) | 30.26% ( 0.32) |
| Both teams to score 44.94% ( -0.28) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.72% ( -0.41) | 61.28% ( 0.41) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.8% ( -0.31) | 81.2% ( 0.31) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.7% ( -0.47) | 29.3% ( 0.47) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.73% ( -0.58) | 65.27% ( 0.58) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.57% ( 0.03) | 36.43% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.78% ( 0.03) | 73.22% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | Penarol |
| 1-0 @ 13.1% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 8.12% ( -0.08)2-0 @ 8.04% ( -0.09)3-1 @ 3.32% ( -0.08)3-0 @ 3.29% ( -0.08)3-2 @ 1.68% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 1.02% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 1.01% ( -0.04)Other @ 1.53% Total : 41.11% | 1-1 @ 13.23% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 10.67% ( 0.16)2-2 @ 4.1% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.61% Total : 28.61% | 0-1 @ 10.78% ( 0.18) 1-2 @ 6.68% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 5.44% ( 0.09)1-3 @ 2.25% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.83% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 1.38% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.9% Total : 30.26% |
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