Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Nacional win with a probability of 40.81%. A win for Penarol has a probability of 30.41% and a draw has a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win is 1-0 with a probability of 13.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (8.05%) and 2-0 (8.01%). The likeliest Penarol win is 0-1 (10.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (13.26%).
