SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 55.19%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for River Plate had a probability of 21.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.92%) and 1-2 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.21%), while for a River Plate win it was 1-0 (6.43%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Penarol in this match.
| Result | ||
| River Plate | Draw | Penarol |
21.22% ( 0.99) | 23.59% ( 0.54) | 55.19% ( -1.53) |
| Both teams to score 51.72% ( -0.21) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.36% ( -1.02) | 48.64% ( 1.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.24% ( -0.93) | 70.75% ( 0.93) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.68% ( 0.43) | 37.32% ( -0.43) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.89% ( 0.42) | 74.1% ( -0.42) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.51% ( -0.91) | 17.48% ( 0.91) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.02% ( -1.61) | 47.97% ( 1.61) |
| Score Analysis |
| River Plate | Draw | Penarol |
| 1-0 @ 6.43% ( 0.34) 2-1 @ 5.53% ( 0.19)2-0 @ 3.17% ( 0.2)3-1 @ 1.82% ( 0.08)3-2 @ 1.58% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 1.04% ( 0.08)Other @ 1.65% Total : 21.22% | 1-1 @ 11.21% ( 0.26) 0-0 @ 6.52% ( 0.27)2-2 @ 4.82% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.11% Total : 23.58% | 0-1 @ 11.37% ( 0.13) 0-2 @ 9.92% ( -0.18)1-2 @ 9.78% ( -0.07)0-3 @ 5.77% ( -0.29)1-3 @ 5.69% ( -0.21)2-3 @ 2.8% ( -0.07)0-4 @ 2.51% ( -0.21)1-4 @ 2.48% ( -0.17)2-4 @ 1.22% ( -0.07)Other @ 3.64% Total : 55.18% |
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