SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 48.42%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 23.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.99%) and 2-1 (8.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.7%), while for a Montevideo Wanderers win it was 0-1 (9.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Penarol | Draw | Montevideo Wanderers |
48.42% ( 0.28) | 27.73% ( -0.1) | 23.84% ( -0.18) |
| Both teams to score 43.15% ( 0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.55% ( 0.19) | 61.45% ( -0.2) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.67% ( 0.14) | 81.33% ( -0.14) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.43% ( 0.22) | 25.57% ( -0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.56% ( 0.3) | 60.44% ( -0.31) |
| Montevideo Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.97% ( -0.06) | 42.02% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.54% ( -0.05) | 78.45% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Penarol | Draw | Montevideo Wanderers |
| 1-0 @ 14.65% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 9.99% ( 0.06)2-1 @ 8.66% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 4.54% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 3.94% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 1.71% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.55% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 1.34% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.03% Total : 48.42% | 1-1 @ 12.7% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 10.74% ( -0.08)2-2 @ 3.76% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.53% Total : 27.73% | 0-1 @ 9.32% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 5.51% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 4.04% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 1.59% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.17% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.09% Other @ 1.14% Total : 23.84% |
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