Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 53.83%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 20.16%.

The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.17%) and 1-2 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.01%), while for a Montevideo Wanderers win it was 1-0 (7.93%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood.

Result
Montevideo Wanderers	Draw	Penarol
20.16%	26%	53.83%

Both teams to score 43.45%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41.15%

58.84%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.65%

79.35%

Montevideo Wanderers Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

55.69%

44.3%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.63%

80.37%

Penarol Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.01%

21.99%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.7%

55.29%

Score Analysis

Montevideo Wanderers 20.16%

Penarol 53.82%

Draw 26%

Montevideo Wanderers	Draw	Penarol
1-0 @ 7.93% 2-1 @ 4.89% 2-0 @ 3.23% 3-1 @ 1.33% 3-2 @ 1.01% Other @ 1.78% Total : 20.16%	1-1 @ 12.01% 0-0 @ 9.74% 2-2 @ 3.7% Other @ 0.55% Total : 26%	0-1 @ 14.75% 0-2 @ 11.17% 1-2 @ 9.1% 0-3 @ 5.64% 1-3 @ 4.59% 0-4 @ 2.14% 2-3 @ 1.87% 1-4 @ 1.74% Other @ 2.82% Total : 53.82%