While Montpellier did the double over the opponent last season, they have been exceptionally poor this term, and come into this match following three consecutive defeats during which they conceded 11 times.
Indeed, Toulouse have not been great either this season, but they have been solid defensively, allowing only 11 goals to date, and we feel they will be able to take at least a point from this match.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toulouse win with a probability of 40.75%. A win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 34.03% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toulouse win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.76%) and 0-2 (6.61%). The likeliest Montpellier HSC win was 1-0 (8.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.89%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toulouse would win this match.
-0.19) 
0.39) 
