Both teams are enjoying some good form, even if Monza's achievements have been more modest by comparison, but the effects of a long continental campaign could finally be catching up with Fiorentina. With their priorities now lying in the cups, Sunday's visitors are set to take their eye off the ball and drop points once again.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 51.2%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for Monza had a probability of 23.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.84%) and 1-2 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.1%), while for a Monza win it was 1-0 (7.82%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood.
0.21) 
-0.3) 
