With their confidence sapped still further by a 17th Serie A defeat of the season, Cremonese may find it hard to resist Italy's most in-form side on Wednesday.
Fiorentina's surge since losing back-to-back league games in February has been nothing short of spectacular, and they can set themselves up with a first-leg lead ahead of the return in Florence later this month.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 55.64%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Cremonese had a probability of 21.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.79%) and 0-2 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.59%), while for a Cremonese win it was 2-1 (5.74%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fiorentina would win this match.
-0.51) 
0.72) 
