Both teams have enjoyed strong runs of form both domestically and in Europe in recent months and will be confident of picking up a valuable first-leg win on Thursday.
However, Fiorentina will be regarded as the favourite to come out on top and should have enough quality to edge past their Polish counterparts.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 44.1%. A win for Lech Poznan had a probability of 28.8% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.76%) and 0-2 (8.34%). The likeliest Lech Poznan win was 1-0 (9.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fiorentina would win this match.
-0.13) 
0.01) 
