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Conference League | Quarter-Finals | 2nd Leg
Apr 20, 2023 at 5.45pm UK
Stadio Artemio Franchi

Fiorentina
2 - 3
Lech Poznan

Sottil (78'), Castrovilli (90+2')
Biraghi (19'), Milenkovic (35'), Terzic (63'), Venuti (69')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Sousa (9'), Velde (65' pen.), Sobiech (69')
Sobiech (17'), Czerwinski (23'), Kvekveskiri (83'), Skoras (88')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Lech Poznan 1-4 Fiorentina
Thursday, April 13 at 8pm in Europa Conference League

We said: Fiorentina 3-1 Lech Poznan (Fiorentina to win 7-2 on aggregate)

Having played as recently as Monday, we do not necessarily expect Fiorentina to be at their best in the second leg. Nevertheless, their superior quality and strength in depth should see them through this tie in comfortable fashion. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 62.19%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Lech Poznan had a probability of 16.91%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.5%) and 2-1 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.89%), while for a Lech Poznan win it was 0-1 (4.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.

Result
FiorentinaDrawLech Poznan
62.19% (0.2 0.2) 20.9% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04) 16.91% (-0.161 -0.16)
Both teams to score 52.83% (-0.215 -0.22)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.59% (-0.116 -0.12)43.4% (0.11900000000001 0.12)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.2% (-0.11499999999999 -0.11)65.8% (0.11699999999999 0.12)
Fiorentina Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.6% (0.02300000000001 0.02)13.4% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
59.67% (0.042999999999999 0.04)40.32% (-0.040999999999997 -0.04)
Lech Poznan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61% (-0.26300000000001 -0.26)39% (0.264 0.26)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.28% (-0.249 -0.25)75.72% (0.25 0.25)
Score Analysis
    Fiorentina 62.18%
    Lech Poznan 16.91%
    Draw 20.9%
FiorentinaDrawLech Poznan
2-0 @ 10.55% (0.07 0.07)
1-0 @ 10.5% (0.07 0.07)
2-1 @ 9.94% (-0.0040000000000013 -0)
3-0 @ 7.07% (0.053000000000001 0.05)
3-1 @ 6.66% (0.0019999999999998 0)
4-0 @ 3.55% (0.029 0.03)
4-1 @ 3.35% (0.004 0)
3-2 @ 3.14% (-0.021 -0.02)
4-2 @ 1.58% (-0.01 -0.01)
5-0 @ 1.43% (0.013 0.01)
5-1 @ 1.35% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 3.07%
Total : 62.18%
1-1 @ 9.89% (-0.011000000000001 -0.01)
0-0 @ 5.22% (0.027 0.03)
2-2 @ 4.68% (-0.036 -0.04)
3-3 @ 0.98% (-0.014 -0.01)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 20.9%
0-1 @ 4.92% (-0.010000000000001 -0.01)
1-2 @ 4.66% (-0.039000000000001 -0.04)
0-2 @ 2.32% (-0.021 -0.02)
2-3 @ 1.47% (-0.022 -0.02)
1-3 @ 1.46% (-0.022 -0.02)
Other @ 2.09%
Total : 16.91%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Fiorentina 1-1 Atalanta
Monday, April 17 at 7.45pm in Serie A
Last Game: Lech Poznan 1-4 Fiorentina
Thursday, April 13 at 8pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Fiorentina 1-1 Spezia
Saturday, April 8 at 1.30pm in Serie A
Last Game: Cremonese 0-2 Fiorentina
Wednesday, April 5 at 8pm in Coppa Italia
Last Game: Inter Milan 0-1 Fiorentina
Saturday, April 1 at 5pm in Serie A
Last Game: Fiorentina 1-0 Lecce
Sunday, March 19 at 2pm in Serie A
Last Game: Lech Poznan 1-4 Fiorentina
Thursday, April 13 at 8pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Djurgarden 0-3 Lech Poznan
Thursday, March 16 at 5.45pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Lech Poznan 2-0 Djurgarden
Thursday, March 9 at 8pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Lech Poznan 1-0 Bodo/Glimt
Thursday, February 23 at 8pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Bodo/Glimt 0-0 Lech Poznan
Thursday, February 16 at 5.45pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Lech Poznan 3-0 Villarreal
Thursday, November 3 at 8pm in Europa Conference League


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